Monday, January 2, 2017

Thoughts on "budget stores" under Trump?

Many of the low priced budget stores, such as Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Tuesdays, Aldi, etc., depend on imports from countries where items are manufactured inexpensively. The low cost of production and the low cost of importing these items is reflected in the low prices at the retail stores.

The new administration has spoken repeatedly about raising tariffs significantly on goods coming into the country. This administration also says that it will bring many jobs and companies back to the US and this too will have the effect of raising prices.  It is just a fact that producing goods in the US is more expensive than making them overseas. For example, Apple has stated that it would have to increase the cost of the iPhone over 100% if it was produced in the US. This would drive the price up to around $1300. The budget stores will be forced to raise their prices and may suffer a loss of sales and possibly go out of business.

Everything is relative. If all the prices in the big brand store chains also go up significantly, as they likely will, then the prices at the budget stores may still be considered a bargain. However, the goal of the Trump administration is to make the prices competitive with the prices of US goods.

The effect of refocusing on the American economy is supposed to be higher wages and benefits for the American worker. This is the idea behind trickle down economics which depends on the generosity, humaneness and fair play of corporate America. Corporate America does not have a very good track record in this area. Trickle down economics has been tried in the past and was found to be unsuccessful.

POST SCRIPT: Now that Trump has been in office for about 6 mos., I see that he is not holding to his campaign promises for the most part. Hilary is free, there is no wall, he is having trouble with health care and coal workers are the only ones working again.  he recently had a meeting with the German ambassador which was followed in a few days with an announcement that Aldi stores will be expanding their American base. I don't think this is a coincidence.  So, there probably will not be a big tariff on imported goods.

Why the really big spending in Christmas season of 2016

Holiday spending was up 3.5% to 5.0% according to who you talk to. This is a significant increase from last year. It's the best it has been in a long time. Why?

Well, I think I finally figured out why there was such an increase in holiday spending and, yes, Donald Trump may deserve the credit.

The Republicans were all going out shopping singing "Happy Days are Here Again" and thinking that they were going to be making more money. No worries about the future and everything is going to be wonderful when America is great again! So they were spending and running up bills!

The Democrats, foreseeing a future of doom and gloom and economic collapse figured that this is going to be the last great Christmas before the new President gets in. So, they went on a spending spree to cheer themselves up and try to enjoy one last good Christmas.

Of course there are other explanations for this trend (and I'm sure we will see them), but let's not confuse the issue with facts.